Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party are set to form the new government again, exit polls from India's month-long parliamentary elections show. But past polls have gotten results wrong before.
Bharatiya Janata Party and its allies are set to form the government again. Political consultancy Eurasia Group, however, said that election watchers should exercise some caution around those predictions.
Local Indian media reported that exit polls predicted a clear majority for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance. It is expected to win nearly or above 300 seats in India's lower house of parliament, or Lokh Sabha as it is known,"The exit polls released are in line with our belief that Modi's BJP will be the single largest party, while it will have to rely on allies to form the government," Akhil Bery, South Asia analyst at Eurasia Group, said in a note on Sunday.
Bery pointed to previous elections where exit polls either completely missed the mark or failed to accurately predict an outcome. In 2004, when the NDA was expected to win between 230 and 275 seats, they ultimately won only 187 seats and were unable to form the government, he said. In the 2014 elections, while exit polls predicted that the NDA would win, only one of them was able to accurately forecast the extent of Modi's victory, according to Bery.
Still, the scale of the NDA's projected seat count would mean that "every exit poll would need to be extremely wrong for a NDA coalition not to return," he added.. But some analysts pointed out that exit polls, despite being inaccurate in some cases, have a better track record than opinion polls.
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