India's annual pre-budget economic survey is likely to peg GDP growth at 6-6.8% for 2023-24, according to a source.
The government survey is likely to say that growth is seen at 6.5% for 2023-24 under the baseline scenario, the person said, declining to be named as the matter was confidential. This would be the slowest in three years. Nominal growth is likely to be forecast at 11% for 2023-24, the source added.
An economic survey by Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran will be tabled in the parliament on Tuesday by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, a day before she presents the budget for the next fiscal year.India's economy has rebounded since the COVID-19 pandemic, but the Russia-Ukraine conflict has triggered inflationary pressures and prompted central banks, including India's, to reverse the ultra-loose monetary policy they adopted during the pandemic.
The survey will likely caution that pressure on the Indian rupee could continue due to the tightening of monetary policy, the source said. India's current account deficit may also remain elevated as imports could remain high due to a strong local economy while exports ease due to weakness in the global economy, the survey will likely caution.
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