Macroeconomics: The Federal Reserve is maintaining high interest rates to curb inflation, even if it slows growth. The economy is performing slightly
US dollar strength supported by higher rates-for-longer amidst a resilient US economy better than expected, with positive outlooks for GDP and an indifferent outlook for inflation and unemployment. The DXY appreciated in 2022 due to inflation and is now on an uptrend, reflecting expectations of prolonged high-interest rates. The U.S. economy is cooling but still strong, with GDP growth above 2%, inflation stabilising around 3.5%, and employment remaining low.
Intermarkets are also reflective of this resilient US economy narrative and subsequent higher-for-longer rates: The moving averages of the DAX are above the index which is falling and aligned in such a way that indicates an outlook of potentially economic slowdown. The moving averages of the six-month German bund yields are below the current yield and aligned in such a way that indicates an outlook of potentially stable rates.
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