Eurostat will release a first flash estimate of Eurozone Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for October on Tuesday, October 31 at 10:00 GMT and as we get closer to the release time, here are the expectations forecast by the economists and researchers of seven major banks regarding the upcoming EU inflation print.
Headline is expected at 3.1% year-on-year vs. 4.3% in September, while Core is expected at 4.2% YoY vs. the prior release of 4.5%. If so, headline infaltion would have fallen to its lowest level in two years – within sight of the 2% target. Erste Group We expect a further slight decline in inflation in October, mainly due to a continued downward trend in food prices as well as core inflation.
Deutsche Bank We expect the headline measure for the Eurozone to further decline to 3.1% from 4.3% in September, and see the core gauge slowing to 4.1% . SocGen Lower energy inflation should see the HICP decrease by 1.3pp to 3% YoY in October, with core inflation down 0.3pp to 4.2% YoY. Citi Large base effects should cause a major step down in Euro area headline inflation in October to 3.1% YoY, the lowest since August 2021. Core CPI should also ease to 4.2% YoY, on a 0.3% NSA MoM gain .
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