One factor has long underpinned pushback by European governments and business over sanctions on Russia: concern for their own pocketbooks.
“It is beyond any discussion that the German business world supports the imposed sanctions,” read a statement by the chairman of the German Eastern Business Association, a trade group in long-standing favor of robust ties to Russia.
Many of the effects, including higher gas, electricity and food prices, have either set in or could hit in the next six weeks, said Andrew Kenningham, chief Europe economist at Capital Economics, a research consultancy. That spans the final stretch of the French presidential election campaign, potentially playing into the hands of the crowded field of populist candidates running against President Emmanuel Macron.
While much of the continent seems willing to bear the price for now, such effects could drive division, especially if Europe targets Russian gas and oil exports, or if Russia decides to withhold supplies. Even in the absence of such moves, the international oil benchmark surged beyond $110 a barrel on Wednesday, as buyers refrained from purchasing Russian crude amid financial uncertainty and the prospect of supply chain disruptions.
Some see nuclear energy as a possible lifeboat. The crisis has reawakened one of the country’s most divisive debates — and one that appeared to have been settled, with all remaining nuclear power plants set to be taken off the grid this year. But speaking on Sunday, Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck, whose Green Party is rooted in the country’s anti-nuclear movement, was no longer willing to rule out an extension. “Nothing is a taboo,” he said, also raising the possibility of more reliance on coal.
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