We’ve examined French voting data going back to the revolution – and it shows the politics of migration is a dead end, say authors Julia Cagé and Thomas Piketty
We’ve examined French voting data going back to the revolution – and it shows the politics of migration is a dead end, governments are shifting right and the left is collapsing. Are we entering a new political era, and can the left ever return to power? In other words, is the rightward drift inevitable?
In a nutshell, we studied the determinants of voting behaviour using data gathered at municipal – “commune” – level, covering every election between 1848 and 2022 and the main referendums held between 1793 and 2005. The chief advantage of examining such localised data is that theoffer a broad range of electoral profiles: they include very poor and very rich districts as well as a full range of industrial and occupational makeups, with varying proportions of graduates, migrants and so on.
Over the past few years, the view has taken hold that the working classes have entirely abandoned the left. Some even argue that the left in Similarly, the poorest communes have generally voted much more for the left, especially in cities. That remains true to the present day. The confusion comes from the fact that commentators tend to associate the working classes only with blue-collar manufacturing workers, forgetting that the average wage of supermarket cashiers, restaurant staff, cleaners, care workers and other service industry employees has fallen below that of manufacturing workers for several decades now.
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