Despite the much lower natural gas prices this summer compared to last year, Europe is not out of the woods yet. A cold winter and a full cut-off of still-flowing pipeline gas from Russia could trigger another period of market volatility and high prices.
Lower demand and increased intake of LNG and pipeline flows from sources other than Russia – Norway and North Africa – have eased much of the pressure on gas prices and fears of a repeat of the energy crisis. “Major uncertainties remain ahead of the upcoming heating season. A cold winter, together with a full halt in Russia piped gas supplies to Europe early in the heating season, could easily renew market tensions,” the agency said.
Europe is now relying much on LNG imports, and a cold winter would relaunch the race with Asia to attract cargoes. Europe’s single biggest gas supplier now is Western Europe’s top oil and gas producer Norway, a close EU ally and a founding member of NATO. “High inventory levels at storage sites in key Asian and European markets provide grounds for cautious optimism ahead of the 2023-24 winter heating season in the Northern Hemisphere,” the agency said, but added that “full storage sites are no guarantee against market volatility during the winter.”
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