Forex Analysis by MarketPulse (Kelvin Wong) covering: Euro US Dollar, US Dollar Japanese Yen, US Dollar Index Futures. Read MarketPulse (Kelvin Wong)'s latest article on Investing.com
The current high expectation of another ECB rate cut in December faces an increased repricing risk.has plummeted by 3.3% from its 25 September high of 1.1214 to today’s current intraday low of 1.0849 at this time of the writing ahead of the European Central Bank monetary policy decision.The current price movement of the EUR/USD is likely to have fully priced in today’s 25 basis points cut by the ECB, its third cut in 2024 to bring the key deposit rate to 3.
After taking into consideration the heightened dovish expectations being played out now in terms of the swift downward movement of the EUR/USD seen in the current week, there is an increasing risk of a repricing of the next ECB rate cut expectations if ECB President Lagarde offered less dovish guidance during her press conference later.
In addition, the daily Bollinger Bandwidth indicator has risen sharply since 1 October 2024 which suggests an overstretched decline condition at this juncture that increases the odds of at least a short-term mean reversion rebound scenario.
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