On Tuesday, EUR/USD struggled to extend Monday’s decent rebound, navigating a volatile range around the 1.0800 region after bottoming out near 1.0770 early in the day.
EUR/USD alternated gains with losses around the 1.0800 region. The US Dollar clung to daily gains following fresh tops. US Q3 GDP data, the ADP report, and German CPI come to the fore. The pair, however, remained below the key 200-day Simple Moving Average at 1.0868, suggesting the potential for further downside in the near term. The US Dollar's rally showed signs of slowing its momentum despite the Dollar Index clinching new highs past 104.
7% year-on-year in September—below the ECB's target—stagnant GDP growth and continued weakness in German and eurozone business activity, particularly in manufacturing, suggest that gradual rate cuts remain necessary amid high uncertainty. As both the Fed and ECB consider their next steps, the trajectory of EUR/USD is likely to depend on broader economic trends. With the US economy currently outperforming the eurozone, the USD may maintain its strength in the near to medium term.
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