EUR/USD hovering precariously above 1.1300 as traders monitor Russia/Ukraine/NATO tensions By Frank_Macro EURUSD ECB
recent more dovish-leaning remarks from ECB policymakers weigh on the euro. EUR/USD was sent tumbling below 1.1400 last week as US press, citing US intelligence, reported that a Russian military incursion into Ukraine could take place as soon as this week, sparking fears about the Eurozone’s dependence on Russian gas imports. At current levels just under 1.1320, the pair is about 1.5% below last week’s highs and is roughly back in line with its pre-hawkish ECB meeting levels from February 3.
According to ING, the “break below 1.1400 in EUR/USD last week is likely signaling that the European Central Bank members’ recent attempt to cool down excessive hawkish speculation has… got to the euro”. “Another break lower – below 1.1300,” the bank continued, “could generate some further bearish momentum inthat could extend to the 1.1200-1.1250 area should markets scale back bets on summer tightening by the ECB”.
Whilst geopolitical tensions between Russia/Ukraine/NATO will likely remain the dominant driver of the pair this week, there is also plenty of central bank speak and US and Eurozone data to keep tabs on.will be speaking at 1615GMT on Monday, ahead of the release of the February German ZEW survey and second estimate of Q4 2021 Eurozone GDP growth on Tuesday.
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