As of 17 Feb, Politico’s poll of polls shows CDU/CSU leading at 30%, AfD at 21%, SPD at 16% and Greens at 13%, while other smaller parties are in the region of 5% or so.
EUR/USD drifted higher amid broad US Dollar pullback. Pair was last seen at 1.0469 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Bullish momentum on daily chart intact This suggests that none of the parties can secure an absolute majority, meaning a coalition will need to be formed. The most likely coalition would have been the union with SPD but Monday evening’s TV show in Berlin saw both leaders Merz and Scholz from SPD ruled out serving together in the same cabinet.
On recent ECBspeaks, Makhlouf warned that the disinflation process is subjected to a very high degree of uncertainty surrounding the outlook while Schnabel said that they are getting closer to the point where the ECB may have to pause or halt rate cuts. She added that officials should discuss at their March meeting the possibility of removing language from their post-decision statement that monetary policy is still restraining the euro-zone economy. EUR drifted higher amid broad USD pullback.
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