Happy July! Be prepared for the new trading month with our forecasts. Get the July forecast for EURUSD here:
, meaning that the Federal Reserve is looking to tighten monetary policy rather aggressively, while the European Central Bank is probably going to be a bit more casual about it. The pair should continue to draw from here, perhaps reaching down to the 1.04 level again, and then the 1.02 level. Sometime this summer, I would not be surprised at all to see the, but I don’t know if it happens in the month of July.
The Federal Reserve is anticipating raising interest rates at least 50 basis points this month, and then again at the next meeting. In contrast, the ECB is likely to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, followed by another 25 basis points. The situation in the European Union is much different than the United States, as there is a major energy problem in the EU, as it now find itselfs scrambling to provide power to its citizens.
It has become apparent that in the United States the number one problem is inflation, so the tightening cycle will not only continue, but it may become rather aggressive. In fact, Fed fund futures are starting to suggest that we may even see a 75 basis point rate hike in July, so this will still favor the greenback.
As a general rule, the greenback is bought in times of uncertainty, which is where we find ourselves now.
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