EUR/JPY broke out of the rising channel it had been in for over two years, in late July.
EUR/JPY has been in an uptrend for over two years and despite a breakdown in July it may still be intact. Ideally, another break below the August lows in the 154s would be necessary to indicate a reversal of the trend. The breakdown was a significant bearish sign; it was steeper than the prior uptrend indicating a possible reversal in the long-term trend.
EUR/JPY then recovered, rising back above the 160 level during the beginning of August. The week-ending August 9 formed a bullish Dragonfly Doji Japanese candlestick pattern which gained confirmation after the following week also closed green. Since then, however, price has broadly oscillated in a range. A break above 163.89 would probably signal a resumption of the dominant multi-year uptrend. From there price would probably rise back up to the 50-day SMA at 166.00 , initially.
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