Analysis - In early 2024, a major geopolitical event unfolded in the Horn of Africa with far-reaching consequences.
Addis Abeba — In early 2024, a major geopolitical event unfolded in the Horn of Africa with far-reaching consequences. Ethiopia and Somaliland signed a Memorandum of Understanding on 01 January 2024 granting Ethiopia sea access through Somaliland's ports in exchange for potential international recognition for Somaliland, marking a significant shift in the region's political landscape..
Eyasu further emphasized that the involvement of external powers like the US, China, Russia, and Gulf Cooperation Council countries complicates the situation, raising concerns about the Horn of Africa becoming a geopolitical battleground.Asrat Birhanu, a hydropolitics researcher, argues that Egypt's involvement is less about supporting Somalia and more about countering Ethiopia's influence in the region.
By aligning with Somalia, Moustafa argues, Egypt risks further destabilizing a region already grappling with internal challenges, such as the ongoing fight against Al-Shabaab militants. Somalia's military cooperation with Egypt not only hardens Ethiopia's stance on the MoU with Somaliland but also complicates Somalia's internal political dynamics.
Federico also noted that Egypt's involvement has shifted the regional balance of power, with new alliances forming around Somalia's position while others remain neutral. However, Somalia's fragility persists, and Egyptian intervention could increase the country's vulnerability, he stated.Turkey has actively attempted to mediate between Ethiopia and Somalia, hosting two rounds of talks in Ankara.
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