In early April, USC researchers and county public health officials embarked on the first large-scale study tracking the spread of the coronavirus in the county.
Over the course of two days, they tested the blood of 863 adults for coronavirus antibodies — which serve as. Participants were selected through a market research firm to represent the makeup of the county.
After adjusting that estimate for the statistical margin of error, their findings suggest that somewhere between 2.8% and 5.6% of adults in the county have antibodies to the virus in their blood.that would translate to roughly 221,000 to 442,000 adults who had recovered from an infection in L.A. County by early April.in the county. One doesn’t need a PhD to know that these are staggeringly different numbers.
The case fatality rate in Los Angeles County is currently estimated to be around 4%. But that calculation, which requires dividing the number of deaths by the number of reported cases, is only based oncases. If there are far more more cases than previously thought, then that fatality rate will be far lower.
“We are very early in the epidemic, and many more people in L.A. County could potentially be impacted,” study leader Neeraj Sood, a professor at USC’s Price School for Public Policy, said. “And as those number of infections arise, so will the number of deaths, the number of hospitalizations, and the number of ICU admissions.
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