The numbers have been crunched, and the metrics expect the Illini to take down the Boilermakers on Friday night
Last Sunday, ESPN’s Basketball Power Index gave Illinois just a 41.0 percent chance of defeating then-No. 15 Michigan on the road. But the Illini beat the odds in convincing fashion, cruising to a 93-73 victory on the road.
On Friday, when Illinois takes on No. 18 Purdue at the State Farm Center , the roles will be reversed. Playing at home and assigned a 59.6 percent winning probability, the Illini will be hoping this time that the numbers hold up.With Illinois' home loss to Big Ten bottom feeder USC in early January and a more recent home defeat against Michigan State , the Illini haven’t always done their best work in their own building this season. But working in their favor is an opponent that has been uncharacteristically average on the road for a Purdue squad – the Boilers have fallen in each of their last three outings outside Mackey Arena. Still, if it's a Matt Painter-coached team, it's dangerous on any floor. Earlier this season, Purdue traveled west to Eugene, Oregon, for a matchup with the then-No. 13 Ducks, and took them down 65-58 on the road despite ESPN’s metrics favoring Oregon. For the Boilers to overcome the odds and add another Big Ten road victory to their resume later this week, they will likely need a scorching-hot showing from beyond the arc and yet another marquee performance from star guard Braden Smith. But if the Illini can rein in Smith and the Boilers' bombers while crashing the offensive glass with five bodies – Illinois has significant size and athleticism advantages in this matchup – they should prove ESPN's BPI prophetic once more.Primarily covers Illinois football and basketball, and Kansas basketball, with an emphasis on analysis, features and recruiting. Langendorf, a third-generation University of Illinois alum, has been watching Illini basketball and football for as long as he can remember. An advertising student and journalism devotee, he has been writing for On SI since October 2024. He can be followed and reached on X @jglangendorf.
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