The Illini appear to be favored by ... almost no one. Yet another analytical tool expects the Hoosiers to stave off the visitors.
It is well established at this point: ESPN’s Football Power Index has no love for No. 9 Illinois. The analytical tool was low on the Illini throughout the preseason and has hardly budged through three games, as Bret Bielema’s club ranks No.
23 in the country according to FPI. Facing Indiana on the road in Week 4, Illinois is unsurprisingly viewed with skepticism by FPI. Toss in the fact that the metric is relatively high on the Hoosiers , and suddenly the Illini are quite the underdogs – again, at least– that seems to view Illinois in a better light, at No. 16. Similar to FPI, though, SP+ is even higher on the Hoosiers, ranking them at No. 13. And given that aforementioned home-field advantage for Indiana, it inherently has the upper hand over Illinois – and the numbers, once again, reflect that.Sep 13, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema and quarterback Luke Altmyer during the second half against the Western Michigan Broncos at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images / Ron Johnson-Imagn Images Per a post on Connelly’s X account, SP+ predicts the Hoosiers to triumph over the Illini by a final score of 28-24. The metric also gives the home squad a 60 percent chance of prevailing, with the projected margin of victory set at 3.9 . Aug 29, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer during an NCAA game against the Western Illinois Leathernecks at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Imageses / Ron Johnson-Imagn Images On the one hand, it’s a bit confusing. Numbers and metrics aside – and yes, there are a lot of them – Illinois is the better team, right? Well, according to the AP poll, yes. But first of all, the AP poll, in a word, lies. Second of all, matchups matters.good – in all three phases. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza is a next-level talent with equally talented weapons at his disposal. Oh, and the defense just so happens to boastpreseason All-Americans . Did we mention IU coach Curt Cignetti is one of the best in the biz?On paper, Illinois and Indiana couldn’t really be better matched, making this contest practically a coin flip … on a neutral field and with all else being equal. But there's bad news for Bielema’s crew: Saturday’s game will take place in Bloomington, and Illini defensive backPrimarily covers Illinois football and basketball, and Kansas basketball, with an emphasis on analysis, features and recruiting. Langendorf, a third-generation University of Illinois alum, has been watching Illini basketball and football for as long as he can remember. An advertising student and journalism devotee, he has been writing for On SI since October 2024. He can be followed and reached on X @jglangendorf.
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