The Illini face the Red Raiders in a battle of top-25 foes in Champaign on Tuesday night. Who is the favorite?
Including Illinois’ exhibition game against Illinois State, we’ve seen the 2025-26 Illini squad in action three times thus far – each of which have been encouraging outings.No. 10 Texas Tech is set to change that on Tuesday night.
Texas Tech-Illinois – a battle of two top-25 teams – is a mathchup the college basketball world is eager to see.It will be a litmus test for both teams, revealing just how advanced each squad is at this early point of the season – and perhaps hint at how bright their futures may be. So, which is the favorite? Not that the AP poll – especially at this point in the season – holds much value, but the Red Raiders are ranked higher, while the Illini are the home team. It feels, on paper, as though it’s a coin flip of a contest. But ESPN’s analytics have a different perspective.Texas Tech players Christian Anderson and JT Toppin react to a play against Sam Houston during a nonconference men's basketball game, Friday, Nov. 7, 2025, at United Supermarkets Arena. / Nathan Giese/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images According to ESPN’s metrics, the home squad is a fairly heavy favorite. Illinois is given a 68.7 percent chance of successfully defending its home floor. ESPN’s Basketball Power Index lists the Illini as the 11th-best team in the nation, while the Red Raiders land at No. 18. Toss in home-court advantage, and Illinois quickly becomes the favorite by a solid margin – at least in the eyes of the BPI metric.Both Illinois and Texas Tech are undefeated through two games, but neither has been tested by any sort of noteworthy opponent. Sure, each squad's early-season matchups offer a vague idea of how good they are, but it’s difficult to know what Tuesday night holds in store, as neither has faced a Power 5 foe yet.impressive. The Red Raiders, specifically their duo of guard Christian Anderson and forward JT Toppin, have also been fairly dominant, and will create problems for this Illinois defense, which has looked unexpectedly stellar through the early stages of the year.All told, between the location of the outing and the Illini’s near-perfect performances thus far, it’s more than fair to predict them to have an almost 70-percent chance of staving off the visitors.Primarily covers Illinois football and basketball, and Kansas basketball, with an emphasis on analysis, features and recruiting. Langendorf, a third-generation University of Illinois alum, has been watching Illini basketball and football for as long as he can remember. An advertising student and journalism devotee, he has been writing for On SI since October 2024. He can be followed and reached on X @jglangendorf.
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