ENVIRONMENT: Waiting for the “Big One”

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ENVIRONMENT: Waiting for the “Big One”
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Right after the February 2023 twin earthquakes in Turkey and Syria, Mami Mizutori, head of the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) issued this statement: “Of all natural hazar…

What remains after earthquake hit Turkey. Photo courtesy of Dr. Teofredo Esguerra

From 1891 to the present, at least 11 strong to great earthquakes – ranging from magnitude 6.0 to magnitude 8.3 – occurred in Davao de Oro and its vicinity, according to the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology . Just like a thief of the night, earthquakes happen anytime, anywhere. Experts believe the Philippines is now ripe for another “Big One,” a hypothetical earthquake of a 7.2-magnitude or greater. But most Filipinos don’t seem to mind it at all – until it happens.

The 2002-2004 “Study for Earthquake Impact Reduction for Metropolitan Manila” said that a 7.2-magnitude earthquake triggered by West Valley Fault can kill around 34,000 people, injure some 114,000 persons, partly damage an estimated 340,000 residential structures and cause the collapse of about 170,000 houses.

According to the PhiVolcs official, an earthquake with an intensity of 7.2 that happened in Compostela Valley will immediately be felt in Davao City “within less than a minute” and the magnitude will be about 7.“Long before Filipinos settled in this country, earthquake faults were already in place,” writes Dr. Alfredo Mahar Lagmay, a professor at the National Institute of Geological Sciences of the University of the Philippines.

The country has five active fault lines: the Western Philippine Fault, the Eastern Philippine Fault; the South of Mindanao Fault; the Central Philippine Fault; and the West or Marikina Valley Fault. What kills people are these seven hazards: ground rupture, ground shaking, land subsidence, liquefaction, tsunamis, landslides, and fire. “The quake takes its toll when buildings and infrastructure topple down, when mountains tumble, and when the ground and water bodies heave,” Dr. Lagmay reminds.

“In flood plains and in coastal areas, the ground can liquefy if water in between sand and gravel mixes, turning land into slurry,” the visiting scientist at the Geophysics Department of Stanford University says. “If not firmly rooted in the ground, buildings on top of the liquefied material may tilt or collapse.”

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