England vs. Argentina goal scorer picks for the 2026 World Cup semifinal. See the latest Kalshi probabilities and my best anytime goalscorer predictions for Messi and Jude Bellingham on Wednesday, July 15.
Lionel Messi may naturally dominate the top of the goal-scorer board, but Jason Ence is looking past the obvious to uncover much better betting value for the England vs. Argentina showdown.
Photo By - Reuters Connect. England's Jude Bellingham celebrates after the match as England qualify for the semi finals of the World Cup. A spot in the 2026 World Cup final is up for grabs today as England faces Argentina at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. While Lionel Messi is just one goal away from claiming sole possession of the Golden Boot, England's powerhouse duo of Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham has accounted for 12 of the team's 13 goals.
Despite this dual dominance, the betting odds are heavily favoring one over the other — and we've identified which English star is offering massive value. Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages , representing the market's estimated probability of an event occurring. Harry Kane is the favorite to score for England, and understandably so.
But I don’t think the gap between his probability and that of Jude Bellingham should be this drastic of a gap. Bellingham has often operated almost as a support striker over the past few matches, making secondary runs into the box after Kane opens space. He’s also more than capable of beating people with the ball at his feet, leading all midfielders with 37 ground duels won in the tournament.
Of the five players in the tournament with six or more goals, he’s got the highest conversion rate . More importantly, he trails only Ousmane Dembele in terms of goals scored above expected, blowing past his 3.38 xG. Bellingham has more touches in the penalty area than Kane despite playing 48 fewer minutes, and he presents far greater value than his teammate in this spot.
On the flip side, I’m taking Lionel Messi to score for Argentina because there’s nobody else in this Argentina side that I trust. Only three Argentine players have racked up more than 1.00 xG in the tournament. In fact, Messi has accounted for 5.27 of his nation’s 12.78 expected goals in total and 18 of their 39 accurate shots. Switzerland held him without a goal, but they also played an extremely tight, compact midfield shape that England doesn’t deploy.
Additionally, the Three Lions may be without Declan Rice at the base of midfield—and if he does play, he’ll be at far less than 100%. Messi was still heavily involved against the Swiss with 120 touches, and is averaging 73 touches per 90 minutes. If Argentina are to find a goal in this match, it’s very likely Messi will be the one scoring it.
: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links. Jason has been hooked on football since watching Real Madrid and Manchester United in the 2003 Champions League, and has been betting on the sport for nearly 15 years. He has given soccer gambling and fantasy advice for nearly a decade, writing for sites including Rotowire, SB Nation, and The TwinSpires Edge.
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