There are suggestions that media and City commentators overdid the pessimism in the run-up to Christmas, though the outlook is bleak, writes IanKingSky
Accordingly, were there to be bad news out there, one would have expected one or two unscheduled trading statements by now.
"Very early days - and entirely possible a new year hangover kicks in - but strong aggregate household balance sheets, behavioural adaptations and high [job] vacancy rates have been drowned out amidst distributional/political angst at type of economic outcomes being generated." According to the Office for National Statistics, regular pay - which strips out bonuses - rose by 6.1% from August to October last year, the latest period for which figures are available.Meanwhile, figures released yesterday by the British Retail Consortium on Wednesday suggest thatfrom 4.8% in November to 4.4% in December, so clearly wages are more than keeping up with inflation in some areas.
One of the very best in the business, Clive Black at Shore Capital, believes that here, too, the doom and gloom may have been overdone. "From our store visits we see quite clean exits; we'll learn more next week with multiple trading updates from the likes of J. Sainsbury, Marks & Spencer and Tesco."
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