Poll shows candidates are in a tight race.
Former President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump dances as he leaves the stage of a town hall meeting in La Crosse, Wisconsin, Aug. 29, 2024. | Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris arriving onstage to speak at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, Aug. 22, 2024.
Satisfaction with the contest, the economy and the country's direction overall are in short supply. Seventy-four percent of likely voters say the country is headed seriously off on the wrong track – the most just before a presidential election since 2008. Half of Harris supporters say so, rising to nearly all, 98%, of Trump's.
In Trump's case, by contrast, far fewer see him as holding to the status quo – just 4% say he'd leave things as they are. But more think he'd shake things up in a bad way, 51%, than in a good way, 45%.Harris scores better than Trump on personal favorability, and outpoints him, albeit by single digits, in having the personality and temperament it takes to serve effectively as president.
Moreover, Harris' GOTV efforts look better targeted. Nationally, among likely voters who support her, 56% say they've been contacted by her campaign. Fewer Trump supporters, 49%, say his campaign has contacted them.Estimates among Hispanic likely voters have been stable in three of the past four ABC/Ipsos polls, in mid-September, early October and this one, averaging 55-41%, Harris-Trump .
Vote preferences among likely voters in other groups are similar to those in previous ABC News/Ipsos polls, allowing for sampling error, which is larger in smaller groups. Among them: Harris has an especially wide lead among women age 18-29, 69-29%. That compares with a non-significant Trump +5 among men that age, 49-44%.
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