Tracking the key races on Election Day 2023, including Virginia's state legislature, governorships in Kentucky and Mississippi, and Ohio's abortion referendum.
Nov. 7, 2023, was Election Day in at least 37 states, and Americans cast their votes on everything from governorships to local referenda. When the dust settled, it was a solid night for Democrats and their allies: According to ABC News projections, Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear won reelection in Kentucky, and Ohio voters passed Issue 1 to codify abortion rights in the state constitution.
As results came in, 538 analysts were breaking them down in real time with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.That's a wrap! In the key races of the night, both parties held serve with Democratic Gov. Beshear's win in Kentucky and Republican Gov. Reeves's win in Mississippi. Other than that race, most of the headliners went to Democrats.
But the population of Americans who cast ballots in today's races will not be the same population that turns out next year. There is strong reason to suspect it will be more Republican-leaning than voters today. Because higher levels of education are correlated with political engagement and, increasingly, the likelihood of voting for Democrats, off-year voters have become more reliably Democratic in recent years.
That's not to say that 2024 will be bad for Democrats. Maybe the demographic and political composition of voters will perfectly match the breakdown in 2020 and they'll be even more Democratic-leaning. That's a possibility! But it is not likely.
But I think a lot of Democrats will be tempted to say that these results bode well for them in 2024, and I just don’t buy that. I don’t think anyone expects Biden to perform as well as Beshear nationwide next year. Ohio’s election was a ballot measure, not a Democrat-versus-Republican race. And Virginia’s legislative elections have historically not been very predictive of the following year’s election. , but rather just to appreciate their importance in the present.
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