Event emerging in the Pacific is likely to be one of the strongest since modern records began in 1950
Satellite images from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. , show warmer-than-normal ocean waters on July 6, 2026 along the equator off South America, the classic signal of El Niño conditions, which can have major effects on weather in California and across the world.
Along with “World Cup” and “Taylor Swift wedding,” it’s one of the most trendy terms so far in 2026: El Niño.there is a 81% chance that very strong El Niño conditions will appear from October to December “that would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950. ” Every day, there are fresh news stories, breathless claims on social media and new questions and concerns from people wondering what it all might mean.
That torrent of attention comes with lots of misinformation and misunderstandings, experts say“I hear that one a lot,” said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources division.
“El Niño does not arrive in California. It is a temporary warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Definitely, it is not something that can come to California. ” Simply put, El Niño events occur every 2 to 7 years when ocean waters along the equator off Peru become warmer than normal, affecting weather patterns across the globe.
They begin when trade winds weaken or reverse, preventing cold, deep-ocean water from rising to the surface. The warmer surface waters become, the stronger the El Niño is considered. The opposite — a cooling of the ocean waters off South America — is called “La Niña.
” El Niño events last for months and can often change the movement of the jet stream, pumping heat and moisture into the atmosphere and creating conditions that allow more winter storms to come to California, particularly Southern California, but also sometimes soaking the Bay Area and Sierra Nevada.
“It can be associated with storms. But it isn’t a storm,” said John Monteverdi, professor emeritus of meteorology at San Francisco State University.
“The storms are the result. ”This is a very common misconception, experts say. Since 1950, there have been 27 El Niños. Generally speaking, the stronger they are, the greater the likelihood of wet winters in California.
Does that mean this winter is going to produce relentless storms and potential floods? History shows it’s not a sure thing.
“This far out, the needle is tilted toward a wetter-than-normal winter for California, especially for Southern California,” said Jan Null, a former lead forecaster with the National Weather Service who now runs Golden Gate Weather Services in Half Moon Bay. The Bay Area received above-average rainfall in 13 of those 27 El Niño winters, below-average rainfall in 9 and average rainfall in 5, according to Null’s research.
In Southern California, the connection is a little stronger: 17 of the 27 El Niño winters brought above-average rainfall, 7 were below-average, and 3 were average. Adding to the nuance, some of California’s wettest winters, such as 2022-23 — the year when snowfall was so great it broke a three-year drought and Sierra Nevada ski resorts had to close for days because their chairlifts were buried in snow — weren’t El Niño winters.
What about when the ocean waters were warmest, like now? Those have happened four times. In two of the very strong El Niño years — 1982-83 and 1997-98 — the Bay Area, Southern California and much of the state experienced double their average annual rainfall, with regular downpours and some flooding. In another, 1991-92, the Bay Area was relatively dry, with 84% of normal rainfall, while Southern California was wet, with 133%.
And in the most recent — 2015-16 — the Bay Area had an average winter, and Southern California was drier than normal. Despite the event being heralded for months as a “Godzilla El Niño,” it was largely a bust, failing to end a prolonged drought. Think of it like a painting, said Michelle L’Heureux, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Md.
“El Niño gives you a preliminary sketch for what to expect for the upcoming seasons,” she said. “It gives you the broad brushes. But the actual details of the portrait will be determined by events we cannot predict months in advance. ” After flooding from a big storm during an El Niño winter, Marcel Zuber checks his neighbor’s car in the Golden Wheel Mobile Home Park on Oakland Road in San Jose, Calif. on Feb. 3, 1998.
Zuber helped evacuate some of his neighbors in his boat, which he pulled through the flooded park. “No,” said Swain, the UC climate scientist.
“El Niño is the classic example of a natural climate variation, unlike a human-caused one like climate change. It has probably occurred for millions of years since the continents were in their current configuration. But there are indications that El Niño events will change in a warming world. ” A chief example, he said, is that as the climate has warmed in recent years, hotter temperatures have made droughts and wildfires more severe.
They have also raised the sea level by roughly 8 inches in Northern California and can cause powerful atmospheric river storms to soak up more water because warmer air holds more moisture.
“Storms are going to have a lot more moisture and energy during particularly strong El Niños,” he said. “A very strong El Niño will make it more likely the storm door in California stays open. ”“The media creates terms to make things seem more exciting and different,” said Monteverdi, the San Francisco State professor.
“‘Heat dome’ and ‘polar vortex’ are also commonly misused. “Super El Niño” has not been embraced in the scientific community. But, unfortunately, we are stuck with it. ” Officially, NOAA has four categories: weak, moderate, strong and very strong.
When water temperatures are 0.5 to 1 degree Celsius above average, that’s weak. When they are 1 to 1.5 Celsius warmer , that’s moderate. From 1.5 to 2 degrees C is strong. Anything above 2-degrees C is very strong.
Where are we now? Surface water conditions at the equator are currently 1.2 C warmer-than-normal and rising. The hottest they have ever reached in 1997-98 and 1982-83, surface temperatures peaked at 2.5 C above average.
Swain noted that when the models from supercomputers from a variety of the world’s top meteorological organizations – those in Europe, Japan and Canada, as well as NOAA in the US, and others — are combined, the forecast is for 3.0 to 3.5 degrees C above average by this December “Some folks don’t like the term ‘super El Niño,'” he said.
“I don’t see a problem with it if it’s accurate. I think this is one of these cases. The current prediction is for the strongest on record. The models are suggesting we are in uncharted territory.
”While El Niño can increase the odds of damaging storms in California, the way it shifts the jet stream can also cause record rainfall in Peru, Chile and Ecuador, and severe droughts in Australia, Indonesia and parts of southern Asia. Warmer and drier-than-average conditions are typical for the northernmost states in the U.S., while cooler, wetter temperatures are more likely in the South. Some positives can come from El Niño, scientists note.
It tends to reduce the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean and increase hurricane activity in the Pacific. That can be good for California, bringing monsoon-type rains into Southern California in late summer and early fall, which is what happened in August 2023 when the remnants of Hurricane Hilary dumped 2 to 5 inches of rain in one day across San Diego, Los Angeles and other parts of Southern California.
“That kind of ended Southern California fire season that year before the Santa Ana winds began,” Swain said. “It’s not all bad,” Null said. “Globally, there are areas that are normally parched and they can get good rainfall. Distribution is key.
If the storms are spread out over a lot of days, it’s not nearly as impactful. ” Huntington Beach Pier and its End Cafe are destroyed by huge waves during a storm on March 1, 1983 during an El Niño winter.
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