EDUARDO PORTER: Climate can handle leaving Africa alone about carbon emissions

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EDUARDO PORTER: Climate can handle leaving Africa alone about carbon emissions
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Economic development opens up avenues for decarbonisation

Trucks and cars drive near the Duvha coal-based power station owned by power utility Eskom, in Mpumalanga. Picture: SIPHIWE SIBEKO/REUTERS

Senegal, where GDP adds up to $1,600 per person — one 47th of that in the US — could get richer much faster if it were allowed to exploit fossil fuels. A high-growth path proposed by the International Energy Agency would multiply its economy sixfold by 2040, in large part by quadrupling the use of fossil fuels.

If their economic growth were to accelerate to reach an average income per person of $6,000 by 2030, global emissions over the decade would decline by 29% even if the carbon intensity of the poorest worsened substantially, as long as the rest of the world stayed on a path to net zero at midcentury. But the seemingly straightforward argument gets complicated pretty quickly. If the Swiss plan is to earn carbon reduction points by repurposing their international aid budget, they would be trading away what matters most for developing countries — development — to suit their own low-carbon preference.

Vijaya Ramachandran at the Breakthrough Institute and Arthur Baker at the Development Innovation Center at the University of Chicago argue that poorer nations will have to raise their per-capita consumption of energy from their current level of 100KwH-300KwH to 5,000KwH-10,000KwHs per year, to achieve the living standards of the rich.

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