Market Overview Analysis by James Picerno covering: . Read James Picerno's latest article on Investing.com
The odds continue to look favorable that the US will dodge an NBER-defined recession through the end of the third quarter. Q4 still looks more challenging, but that’s guesswork at this point. By contrast, the case for expecting a positive trend to endure in Q3 reflects a rising set of published economic data to date.
Alternatively, routinely focusing on a wide set of indicators provides a robust approach for minimizing noise and maximizing signal. At the core of our methodology is the deep and wide analytics of nowcasting the business cycle via the weekly updates of The US Business Cycle Research Report. Another facet of the newsletter’s analytics is modeling and monitoring more than a dozen US economic and financial indicators that collectively provide a robust proxy of the broad macro trend.
Once you start looking at November and beyond, the potential for high-confidence analytics falls sharply. And to be fair, there are reasons to wonder if the current growth bias will survive through the end of the year and into early 2025. Unfortunately, there’s little if any hard data at the moment to make confident forecasts on that front. Of course, that doesn’t stop the usual suspects from trying.
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