The Congressional Budget Office expects economic growth to slow this year and unemployment to rise over the next couple of years, it announced in an update to its economic projections released Wednesday.
The nonpartisan group of congressional budget analysts foresees the Federal Reserve as being successful in its quest to drive down inflation, but with economic costs. While gross domestic product growth will remain positive amid the Fed’s tightening, GDP growth will be slower than normal through 2024.Real GDP growth will slow to a 0.4% annual rate in the second half of this year and, for 2023 as a whole, will increase by 0.9%, according to the report.
But the CBO predicts that will change as the year comes to a close and the initial slowdown in economic growth begins to result in layoffs. Last month, the economy added 209,000 jobs. The CBO projects that monthly employment growth will average just over 100,000 jobs in the second half of the year but that job growth will become negative in 2024. Next year, employment will decline by about 10,000 jobs per month before increasing to 6,000-jobs-per-month growth in 2025, the CBO predicts.
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