ECB Unfazed by Global Inflation Risks, to Maintain Gradual Rate Cuts

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ECB Unfazed by Global Inflation Risks, to Maintain Gradual Rate Cuts
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European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde stated the institution is not overly concerned about inflation risks from abroad and will continue to gradually lower interest rates. She emphasized the importance of US growth for the global economy and noted the diverging monetary policies between the US and Europe.

The European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde expressed that the institution is not overly concerned about the potential for inflation stemming from external factors and will continue to gradually lower interest rates. Lagarde spoke to CNBC on Wednesday, stating that the ECB will closely observe various developments, including exchange rate fluctuations, which may have consequences. However, she emphasized the importance of U.S.

economic growth, as it has historically benefited the global economy. Lagarde addressed the potential impact on Europe if inflation resurges in the United States, stating that such a scenario would primarily affect the U.S. first and foremost. She acknowledged that there are interesting phenomena to watch, such as exchange rate movements, which could have implications. The ECB President highlighted the central bank's confidence in achieving its 2% inflation target by 2025, expecting the disinflation process to continue. She pointed out that markets anticipate distinct monetary policy paths for the U.S. and the euro zone in the coming months, due to differing economic conditions. The ECB and the Federal Reserve have not reduced rates at the same pace, leading to this divergence. The ECB has cut interest rates four times last year, reducing the deposit facility rate to 3%. Market forecasts suggest further reductions to 2% by September 2025, compared to a less than half-percentage point trim anticipated for the Federal Reserve over the same period. Lagarde stated that the direction of interest rate movements is clear, but the pace will depend on data. A gradual approach is currently considered. ECB staff projected annual inflation in the euro area to average 2.1% this year in their December macroeconomic projections, noting that progress on disinflation is on track. The central bank will closely monitor services, energy, wages, and late-comer factors like insurance to assess whether early 2025 delivers the anticipated gradual reduction in service prices. Lagarde also defined the neutral rate, the point where monetary policy neither stimulates nor restricts the economy, as between 1.75% and 2.25%. While headline euro zone price growth has declined from a peak of 10.6%, services inflation has remained stubbornly high, hovering close to 4% since November 2023

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