– ECB to cut rates again next week

Sentiment has been positive this week as markets continue to digest the strong US jobs report from the previous week, and as the conflict in Middle East has not escalated further.

On the latter, Israel could launch its revenge attack against Iran any minute. A decision to target a high-ranking Iranian official or any of the country's oil or nuclear sites, would definitely mark an escalation, and Iran would be forced to respond. However, supply in the oil market remains ample, with substantial volumes of spare capacity in Saudi Arabia, so we see a low risk of higher oil prices even if tensions remain.

This week, the National Development and Reform Commission gave a briefing which lacked concrete measures, leading to a big sell-off in the Chinese equity market. Next, all eyes are on a Finance Ministry briefing on Saturday. We expect Finance Minister Lan Fo'An to announce a clear stimulus plan, but market expectations have become very high, so there is room for disappointment. Next week's main event will be the ECB meeting on Thursday.

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