The period between waves in SA ranges from 94 to 99 days, with high-risk events having little impact on this
Prof Salim Abdool Karim says it seems it would take a major superspreading event to change the interwave low transmission to high transmission within the three-month interwave period.SA scientists are puzzled about why high rates of Covid-19 transmission occur in waves three months apart, with apparently risky behaviour between them having little effect on case numbers.
However, Covid-19 transmission between waves remained “very low”, regardless of viral variants or immunity levels in communities. Smaller increases in risk, however, did not have a large effect on the interwave period, though the looting in KwaZulu-Natal in July did cause the downward reduction in case numbers to slow shortly afterwards.
“After the first wave, we had low levels of natural immunity, and the Beta variant could break through natural immunity anyway, yet it did not cause the second wave until after the three-month interwave period.”
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