Evan Bush is a science reporter for NBC News.
COPALIS BEACH, WASH. — When Japan issued its first-ever “megaquake” warning last week, Harold Tobin, Washington state’s seismologist, was watching carefully. The advisory came after a 7.1-magnitude earthquake struck the southern island of Kyushu. Although that shaking caused little major damage — the biggest tsunami wave it produced would have risen up to your knee — it wasn’t the main worry.
Fast-developing research is hinting that faults like Cascadia and Nankai might send out warning signals: a smaller quake as a foreshock, or a subtle groan only detectable by sensors, which scientists call a slow-slip event. In Tobin’s nightmare scenario, the Cascadia fault suddenly issues that type of groan. Then — what to do? If a major Cascadia quake were to hit, more than 100,000 people would be injured, projections say — assuming the quake hits when few people are at the beach.
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