Early voting is down — and the numbers hold bad news for Democrats

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Early voting is down — and the numbers hold bad news for Democrats
US NewsOpinion2024 Presidential Election
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The dramatic rise in early voting has led many to think the election might be effectively over days or weeks before Election Day. The data thus far show that won’t be true — and the numbers aren’t …

The dramatic rise in early voting has led many to think the election might be effectively over days or weeks before Election Day. The data thus far show that won’t be true — and the numbers aren’t comforting for Democrats .

The number of early votes will rise substantially in the next two weeks as some states send out their mail ballots and others open in-person early-voting centers. But the share of votes cast early is still likely to be much lower even after this happens. Some of that is surely due to the devastation Hurricane Helene caused, but the largest population centers of both states were mainly unaffected.

Joe Biden carried Pennsylvania because he built up a 1.4-million-vote advantage with absentee voters, just enough to let him survive Donald Trump’s 1.33-million-vote lead with Election Day balloters. The inner DC suburbs of Arlington and Alexandria each gave Biden more than 80% of the vote, yet the number of early votes cast in each is less than half that counted at the same point four years ago.

More than 96% of likely voters have not yet cast their vote. By the end of next week, that share is not likely to have dropped below 85%.

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