As war in the Middle East continues, Dubai’s tourist traffic has grinded to a halt. Residents’ shopping habits reveal a more complex and resilient reality on the ground.
Last weekend, as Matthieu Blazy’s new collection dropped at Chanel in Dubai Mall, queues formed outside, not unlike other fashion capitals in recent weeks. But Dubai right now is not like every other fashion capital.
The city is in the midst of the US-Israel-Iran conflict, with Iran directly targeting the UAE. Still, Dubai is a city known for its resilience, stability, and penchant for the good life. The Middle East has emerged as a bright spot for luxury amid the slowdown: the latest Bain-Altagamma Luxury Goods Worldwide Market study predicted 4% to 6% growth for the region in 2025, with Dubai at the epicenter. Naturally, new conflict poses questions around the market’s trajectory, at a critical time for the sector to remain attentive to Dubai’s evolving dynamics. While stores have remained open throughout this period, plummeting tourism has raised concerns for the region’s outlook. For now, though, local consumers are still shopping. Waiting over an hour and a half on a Sunday morning at Chanel was Reema Ameer, a longtime Dubai resident who is half Lebanese-Syrian and half Sri Lankan. On her wishlist were two ready-to-wear pieces. By the time she entered the store at noon, both were sold out, while the handbag section looked thoroughly depleted. For Ameer, a fashion designer herself, it was a clear sign that the appetite for luxury remains strong. Two factors have historically driven demand in Dubai: a high concentration of high-net-worth individuals , a cosmopolitan mix of Emiratis, other Arabs, South Asians, Europeans, and North Americans; and tourism, which has now slowed to a standstill. While some expats led at the start of the war, many residents, particularly Emiratis, other Arabs, and South Asians, are choosing to stay and continue spending. Dressing through disruption Luxury brands should focus on the residents who have stayed, who feel safe despite the crisis, and who are continuing to shop. “Women here love dressing up, it’s part of our DNA. Many women in Dubai come from places like Lebanon, Syria, or Iran, where they’ve lived through periods of uncertainty, so they understand the importance of rituals. Dressing up helps you feel normal,” says Dubai-based Lebanese Lama Jamal and founder of @DubaiStreetStyle, which has nearly half a million followers. Jamal notes that while large-scale events are on hold, social life has not disappeared, only recalibrated. Many residents are taking staycations, with hotels offering special packages to residents. Dubai’s Banyan Tree Hotel, for instance, is offering a discounted room rate and spa voucher. Jamal, who recently spent a long weekend at a luxury property in Dubai, says she is currently in a resort mindset when it comes to shopping. “Summer is coming, so we are hopeful that by the holidays this war will be over and we will be traveling again,” she says. Resortwear brands like Zimmermann and Alémais are particularly on her radar. The sense of dressing as both ritual and control is something personal shopper, stylist, and brand consultant Vasil Bozhilov has observed across his clientele, many of whom are from the Emirati community. “In times of uncertainty, fashion doesn’t disappear, it actually becomes more intentional,” he says. “In Dubai, I wouldn’t even frame it as resilience. It’s simply part of the culture. Being polished and put together is non-negotiable — it’s how people present themselves, how they exist socially.” Luxury without tourists The lack of tourists could have a long-term impact on the market. Footfall at Dubai Mall and Mall of the Emirates is down roughly 50%, according to an analyst familiar with the data , with the drop in tourists taking a hit. Recovery is expected to take at least a few months. Meanwhile, the shopping habits of those who remain show a clear dichotomy, according to Bozhilov. “Aspirational clients become more conservative in times of conflict. They shop less impulsively, they think more, they prioritize,” he says. “But the ultra-high-net-worth segment doesn’t really change. Their shopping is structured, not emotional — they watch the shows, place orders, and move on.” He observes that, across the board, there is a continued move toward goods with perceived value. “Hermès and Chanel bags, and jewelry from houses like Cartier, Tiffany, and Bvlgari, are increasingly seen as investment pieces,” Bozhilov notes. At the very top end, behavior remains largely uninterrupted. He points to clients rerouting via Oman on private jets to attend Paris Fashion Week shows. “That really shows that at the top level, uncertainty doesn’t disrupt behavior in any meaningful way.” Still, Dubai remains a market driven by events, and their absence is being felt. “In this region, we shop for occasions, and occasions are, for now, on pause,” says Dubai-based designer Faiza Bouguessa. However, she notes that orders for Eid Al-Fitr were normal this year. Eid, which is a major moment in the Islamic calendar and marks the end of Ramadan, started on March 19, around three weeks into the war. With several major events like Art Dubai postponed, key drivers of wardrobe updates are now missing. Bouguessa stresses the importance of sensitivity to the current mood: “Some feel frozen because of the uncertainty. Everyone processes things differently. For some, it’s to refrain from shopping; for others, it is to shop.” Sharifa Alsharif Alhashemi, Emirati designer and founder of fashion label Onori, has noticed a shift back to in-store retail. “Online shopping has remained consistently active due to its convenience. But this past weekend, malls became busy again, with people returning to physical shopping and engaging with the experience,” she says. From within the Emirati community, Alhashemi adds, “Everyone around me is still shopping actively, myself included. Not traveling as much actually encourages more local and online shopping, which keeps the momentum going.” Alhashemi adds that it is still too early to fully assess the long-term impact, with factors such as school reopenings likely to influence broader economic activity. But she points to strong internal purchasing power within the Gulf Cooperation Council as a both stabilizing force and a call for deeper regional engagement. “I strongly believe that international luxury houses, particularly those already exploring regional silhouettes such as abayas and kaftans, should consider collaborating with local designers. Regional brands have a much deeper understanding of these styles not just from a design perspective, but from a cultural and lifestyle point of view.” Bozhilov agrees that the opportunity lies in connection, not just commerce. “It’s no longer just about the product. People are looking for experiences, moments of joy, distraction, something emotional,” he says. That may mean smaller, more intimate activations. Jamal, who works closely with several luxury brands, suggests community-focused gatherings. “People are open to gathering in a softer way. It doesn’t have to be big, but creating that sense of community really works in Dubai,” she explains. Jamal also highlights the importance of nurturing existing clients through thoughtful gestures and private experiences, rather than overt promotions. For brands, the message is clear: adapt, be nimble, listen to the consumers, and think local.
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