Dubai chases long-term growth as property booms, seeks to blunt debt risk

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Buoyed by a swift economic rebound post-COVID, as well as an influx of Russian money amid the conflict in Ukraine, Dubai is racing to attract people and capital to drive long-term growth, betting it can avoid past debt crises

The approach pursued by the glitzy Gulf city-state is a reboot of a flamboyant economic model that for decades focused on property investment, tourism and inflows of foreign capital.

It also wants to increase the length of its public beaches to 105 km from 21 km by 2040 and revive the dusty Palm Jebel Ali island abandoned in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis.the world's fourth busiest ultra-prime property market, with 219 home sales over $10 million, according to Knight Frank research.

Abu Dhabi, the UAE's oil-rich capital, eventually stepped in with a $20 billion lifeline, widely expected to be rolled over for a third time. Dubai's population grew to over 3.55 million in 2022, official statistics show, up 2.1% from 2021, and 4% since 2020; S&P estimates it to surpass 4 million by 2026."There is always the risk of a major new round of borrowing on unrealistic expectations for real estate sales; however, I am hopeful that learning from previous cycles will mitigate this risk," said Justin Alexander, director at Khalij Economics and Gulf analyst at GlobalSource Partners.

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