Double Whammy From Inflation Data Ups Risk For Markets

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Double Whammy From Inflation Data Ups Risk For Markets
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The categories most impacted:

) inflation remained at relatively high levels as prices of goods continue to increase.

Late summer data had suggested that recent inflation was mostly transitory as we had seen 3 months of more subdued CPI inflation in July, and September. However, these recent reports for October, showing CPI and PPI inflation remaining stubbornly high, though just a single month of data, may start to test that theory.There are two issues of primary concern in the most recent CPI inflation data. They are energy and housing. Energy prices continue to rise. Economics often chose to strip out energy from inflation indices because it is volatile.

Housing is perhaps more of a long-term concern. It was something of a puzzle that the costs of housing, whether through house prices or rental costs had remained pretty subdued in the inflation reporting. Even today, the costs of shelter are running at just over 3% annualized. That’s in contrast to house price data, which has house prices rising at closer to

. If we’re seeing a lagged impact of house pricing on inflation, then that’s a further concern for the U.S. inflation picture.In addition, some of the narratives around airfares moderating and car prices falling are challenged by this report. Airfares did decline, but by much less than in past months, and both new and used cars rose in price compared to past months. As such there’s really not much to take comfort in from the recent data.

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