A Republican has proposed a constitutional amendment that would allow Donald Trump to run for a third term. We have the Kalshi odds here.
U.S. presidents are presently ineligible to run for a third term – but laws can always be changed. Will Donald Trump seek to amend the constitution in order to run again in 2028?Even before President Donald Trump was elected to a second term in office, there was speculation that he – or some Republicans – might push for a change to the 22nd Amendment that would allow him to run for a third term. That discussion came to the forefront when Representative Andy Ogles proposed an amendment to the U.
It's the latter possibility where there’s at least some potential for investors to consider. Trump already enjoys a safe 6-3 majority of conservative justices on the Supreme Court, at least some of whom seem willing at times to interpret the law to help the president. Has the Supreme Court become more politicized than ever? Sure, and some 5-4 and 6-3 decisions have been questioned on their merits. But the body still frequently decides cases in lockstep when the facts of the matter simply aren’t close. Finding five votes for reinterpreting a clearly worded 22nd Amendment would be a tall task.
Instead, I think No is a safe bet at $0.88, though that may not provide the kind of return investors want over four years. When the market inevitably cools, I might see Yes as a viable longshot at $0.04 or so, but unless that happens, the smart money is on No.Kalshi is a federally regulated exchange that allows users in the U.S. to buy and sell “Yes” and “No” contracts tied to certain event outcomes, such as elections, economic data releases, and entertainment awards.
Ed Scimia has been writing about the gaming industry for over 15 years. He graduated from Syracuse University with degrees in Magazine Journalism and Political Science in 2003, and has covered major gambling events like the World Series of Poker in his career. Since joining Covers in 2022, Ed has offered his sports betting analysis primarily on MLB, NFL, college football, and college basketball games, but is willing to take on any sport.
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