Statistician predicts Trump will win the election despite being behind in the polls, Electoral College forecast, and the popular vote.
Nate Silver has placed Donald Trump ahead of Kamala Harris in terms of his chances of winning the election, according to his latest election forecast on October 19.Despite trailing Harris in the national polls, the share of the popular vote, and projected Electoral College vote victories, the Silver Bulletin has predicted Trump has a higher chance of winning, at 51% to Harris' 49%.
Like Silver, aggregating site FiveThirtyEight regards this projection as minor and continues to refer to the election as a 'toss-up,' posting, 'You might be tempted to make a big deal about our forecast 'flipping' to Trump, but it's important to remember that a 52-in-100 chance for Trump is not all that different from a 58-in-100 chance for Harris—both are little better than a coin flip for the leading candidate.
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