As SA makes decisions about the war in Ukraine, it should note that the US and EU are watching closely
In the recent UN vote on whether Russia should withdraw from Ukraine, 144 countries voted for ; 31 abstained, including SA and 15 other African states; and seven voted against the resolution . The rest did not vote. Almost two-thirds of SA exports go to the countries that voted for Russia to leave Ukraine, 26% to the abstentions and 0.31% to the scoundrels.creme-de-la-Kremlin
To understand SA’s vulnerability, the country has to understand which of its exports it has market control over . Those products will be fine no matter what happens. These are mostly minerals and precious metals, accounting for 47% of SA’s exports to the US. Almost half SA’s exports to the US are things it digs out of the ground. Some of these fall into the first category, such as chrome and platinum, in which SA has been blessed by having most of the world’s reserves. For the rest, countries such as Australia would be happy to take SA’s place. They will replace our wine too. They already have a trade agreement with the US, and countries such as Kenya are well on their way to follow suit.
SA’s saving grace is that the Southern African Development Community accounts for 21% of its exports, just 1% below those to the EU. The rest of Africa, which is meant to be opening up under the African Continental Free Trade Agreement, accounts for 2% of exports. But Africa, packed to the back teeth with minerals, doesn’t buy what SA sells to the US and Europe. They are also mostly poor, and so are limited in how much they can buy.
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