The U.S. dollar clawed back some of the previous day's declines on Thursday as investors weighed the outlook for Federal Reserve policy amid simmering fears that high interest rates could spur a recession.
With Japan's own long-term yields pegged near zero by the central bank, the yen slid as long-term U.S. Treasury yields clambored off three-month lows.of stifling COVID restrictions.
Money markets price 91% odds that the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee will raise rates by half a point on Dec. 14, with just 9% probability for another 75 basis point increase. Rates are now seen peaking at just below 5% in May. "The FOMC may step down the pace of its rate hikes to 50bp next week, but unless inflation decelerates consistently, upside risks to FOMC policy remain."
On the U.S. political front, the Democrats strengthened their razor-thin majority in the senate after a narrow win for incumbent Raphael Warnock in Georgia over Donald Trump-backed former football star Herschel Walker, although the impact on the dollar was limited.
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