Experts say New York City in particular is not built to withstand a massive earthquake and that preparations need to be undertaken now to avert a possible catastrophe.
was the biggest temblor to hit the region in nearly 150 years—and experts say it’s well past time to start taking the seismic threat seriously., “thousands” of earthquakes with magnitudes of 2.0 or greater have occurred in New York State over the past few centuries and there is a 20 to 40 percent chance of a 5.2 magnitude earthquake occurring within the next 50 years, and “atastrophic events with Magnitudes 6 and larger are possibilities.
“We need to care more about earthquakes than we did before,” said Kolawale, an assistant professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University. “This event, and historical events, suggest that we can have magnitude-5 earthquakes at less than 10 kilometers depth in the New York area, and that is important. We should definitely have more preparedness going on than what exists. Buildings should be fortified. Tunnels should be fortified.
A 4.8 magnitude quake is not considered “a big one,” though it’s not far off from meeting that threshold, Kolawale said. The largest prior earthquake in the area, at a magnitude of 5.3, occurred in 1884, with an epicenter just south of Long Island, according to Kolawale. He said small earthquakes in areas including New York City do happen, although they are generally too weak to generate much notice. There was a 1.7-magnitude quake centered in Astoria, Queens in January, a 2.4-magnitude quake in 2001, and a 2.6 in 2002, with epicenters around Central Park.
“Like, if you get an 8, for example, or 9, I mean, none of these brownstone structures will take that,” he said. “They were designed before code existed for this type of thing.” And although his wife was evacuated from her office during this morning’s quake, said, “I don’t want to scare people. If you ask me, am I personally worried? No.”
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