Experts predict there could be a progressive surge from late voting Democrats as vote-by-mail ballots continue to be counted over the next few days.
A worker pushes a cartful of ballots the day after California’s primary election at the L.A. County Ballot Processing Center in City of Industry on Wednesday.
Only an estimated 60% of votes have been counted across California, and the remaining vote-by-mail ballots are expected to skew in Democrats’ favor. With many races still very tight and millions of ballots yet to be counted, political experts said Democrats are likely to hold — or even gain — the edge as results of the primary election come into focus.
Republicans appear to have over-performed in early vote counts, but for a variety of reasons, experts believe the ballots will lean more Democratic as the latest vote-by-mail ballots are counted. This could benefit progressives in close races, but by how much remains an open question.
“Don’t count Nithya Raman out yet,” said Zev Yaroslavsky, director of the Los Angeles Initiative at UCLA Luskin, who closely tracks local elections. “Pratt has an edge ... but it’s not free from doubt at this point,” Yaroslavsky said. Rob Stutzman, a longtime GOP strategist, agrees the remaining vote count will skew more strongly for Democrats, but he’s “not so sure it’s going to change where we’re at.
”Raman’s chances rely on her beating Bass considerably in the remaining count — “that doesn’t seem very likely,” Stutzman said. Still, the GOP — long the minority in deep blue California — had things to brag about on election night. Pratt, a Republican, clearly broke through to a certain segment of Los Angeles, which is overwhelmingly Democratic. And Steve Hilton, a Fox News commentator backed by President Trump, emerged as the leading vote-getter in the race to replace Gov.
Gavin Newsom.
Experts have said both tapped into dissatisfaction withBut in recent years, early momentum from Republicans has been tempered as the vote count becomes more complete, especially as Democrats are generally more comfortable voting by mail, a process thatYaroslavsky predicted that ballots are going to get “more democratic, more progressive,” particularly in Los Angeles County.initially trailed developer Rick Caruso in the mayoral race, As of Wednesday morning, a higher share — 32% — of counted ballots came from registered Republicans across the state, compared with 29% during 2022’s primary at this point in the count, according toPolitical Data Inc. And Democrats have made up a smaller share of early vote counts this primary — 47% thus far compared with 51% in 2022 — which include early mailed-in and dropped-off ballots and votes cast at in-person polls.
With the top two candidates in the primary advancing, many Democratic-leaning voters appear to be waiting for a clear leader to emerge, political analysts say. That blue swing could also affect some statewide contests, experts said, particularly in the close race for governor. The top three vote-getters as of Wednesday morning — Hilton and Democrats Xavier Becerra and Tom Steyer — were all within a few percentage points, though less than 60% of the expected vote had been counted.
Could Hilton — currently with about 28% of counted votes — face a real challenge from Steyer for the second place spot? It would be tough, experts say.
“I think he’s fairly comfortable,” Stutzman said of Hilton. Unless voter turnout is markedly higher than expected, he doesn’t see an easy path for Steyer coming back, especially because it would require Steyer resoundingly beating Becerra in the late vote. Hilton currently leads the contest by about 100,000 votes over Becerra, but has an edge of about 400,000 votes over Steyer. Pollsters expect Becerra to make the runoff, given California’s strong blue slant and recent surveys.
In deep-blue California, frustration with Democratic status quo roils governor, L.A. mayor race For Democrats, little clear consensus has emerged so far on who should lead Los Angeles and California into the future. Ballots in California are accepted for up to seven days after the election if they are postmarked on or before election day, and the official count can take up to 30 days.
Voting by mail has become the favorite method among Californians since universal vote-by-mail was implemented in 2021: more than 80% of ballots have since come from absentee, or vote-by-mail ballots, according to the California Voter Foundation’s“We need to accept the first ballots that are counted aren’t always those that are most representative,” said Jessica Levinson, a law professor at Loyola Marymount University. But that’s not a sign that elections are rigged or fraudulent, she said, “We allow people lots of different avenues to vote, and as a result it takes longer to count up all the votes,” Levinson said.
“That’s how it should be. ... It’s an argument in favor of making sure the process runs correctly — not quickly. ”Grace Toohey is a reporter at the Los Angeles Times covering breaking news for the Fast Break Desk.
Before joining the newsroom in 2022, she covered criminal justice issues at the Orlando Sentinel and the Advocate in Baton Rouge. Toohey is a Maryland native and proud Terp. Author and CBS News correspondent Jonathan Vigliotti attempts to answer some questions about rebuilding communities in his new book about the Palisades Fire — and names a motive for a quick rebuild: the Olympic games coming to Los Angeles in 2028.
Today we discuss one of the pivotal events of the 1960s: the assassination of Robert F. Kennedy. Though the gunman was caught at the scene, confessed at trial, and even bragged about the shooting, his motives have largely been forgotten. Fidel Martínez and Suzy Exposito sit down with Dominican-American singer, actress, and Latin Grammy-nominated artist Leslie Grace for a wide-ranging conversation about music, movies, and what it means to be Latino in Hollywood today.
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