New ventures require a new way to plan.
You’re weighing a major strategic venture—a first-time alliance, a new market, an innovative product. Beware: business history is littered with stories about smart companies that hemorrhaged multiple millions from ventures gone bad.
Why such massive losses? Too many firms use conventional planning to manage their ventures, say McGrath and MacMillan. They make predictions about a venture’s potential based on their established businesses. And they treat the assumptions underlying those predictions—“The product will sell itself,” “We’ll have no competitors”—as facts. By the time they realize a key assumption was flawed, it’s too late to stanch the bleeding.
How to avoid this scenario? As your venture unfolds, use a disciplined process to systematically uncover, test, and revise the assumptions behind your venture’s plan. You’ll expose the make-or-break uncertainties common to ventures. And you’ll address those uncertainties at the lowest possible cost—so you don’t set your venture on the path to ruin.
Business lore is full of stories about smart companies that incur huge losses when they enter unknown territory—new alliances, new markets, new products, new technologies. The Walt Disney Company’s 1992 foray into Europe with its theme park had accumulated losses of more than $1 billion by 1994. Zap-mail, a fax product, cost Federal Express Corporation $600 million before it was dropped. Polaroid lost $200 million when it ventured into instant movies.
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