Did One Bad Poll Help Gavin Newsom Mobilize Recall Opponents?

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Did One Bad Poll Help Gavin Newsom Mobilize Recall Opponents?
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Turns out the mortal threat of a recall may have been in part an illusion based on one shocking poll

Things are now beginning to look up for Gavin Newsom. Photo: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images The Public Policy Institute of California, a well-regarded public opinion outfit with a tangible Republican lean in their polling history, has just released its final survey on the Newsom recall election in which voting will end on September 14. The poll shows the effort to recall the governor trailing among likely voters by a hefty 39-58 margin.

SurveyUSA subtly changed the language it used to identify a likely voter. In previous polling, voters were asked how certain they were to vote or not vote “in the recall election to remove the Governor,” wording which may have led some respondents opposed to the recall to misidentify themselves as being unlikely to vote. In today’s release, voters are instead asked how certain they are to vote or not vote “in the recall election.

So much for Governor Paffrath, who fell into the pack of 41 other candidates on the ballot behind the top five in the final PPIC survey.

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