Russia and China are leveraging their nuclear weapons programs to extract U.S. concessions on unrelated issues
President Joe Biden’s administration has adopted new nuclear guidance to ensure Washington is better prepared to deal with nuclear adversaries.There was a time when the subject of nuclear weapons was so consequential to international peace that it could bring even the most intense adversaries into the same room. Increasingly, it feels that this time has passed.
U.S. attempts to name and shame China and Russia to reenter arms control talks amount to theater. Deploying more intermediate-range missile systems to Europe or Asia is likely to compel China and Russia to pour even more resources into their own strategic weapons systems. The Biden administration is frustrated by the linkage. But it shouldn’t be surprised. Nuclear weapons are not only a matter of prestige for Moscow and Beijing but also a tool to pressure the United States into acceding to their demands. While some may be amenable to cutting off weapons shipments to Ukraine, doing the same with respect to Taiwan is a nonstarter in U.S. policy circles. If the price for arms control negotiations with Russia or China is a fundamental reorientation of U.S.
The notion that Russia would pick a fight with NATO at a time when its own poor military performance in Ukraine has been exposed for the entire world to see is difficult to believe. In fact, a deeper U.S. security posture in Germany could even be counterproductive by discouraging European states from investing in their own defense capability over the long term.
Reagan and Gorbachev’s famous quote that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought” remains relevant today. Strategic stability with the world’s top powers is still possible, even if it requires trade-offs along the way.
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