A Newsweek analysis of 2020 polling and the results of the 2020 election found that most October polls predicted much larger wins for President Joe Biden.
A voter fills out their ballot at Bedford High School during the New Hampshire Primary on September 13 in Bedford, New Hampshire. New Hampshire is one of the five battleground states the Democrats are likely to take in the midterms.In October 2020, Biden was expected to win the Peach State by three percentage points, according to a poll from Monmouth University. But the results of the election showed a much smaller victory of less than one percentage point.
Biden's win in Georgia was even smaller than the one in Arizona. The Democrat won by a margin of 0.23 percent.with a double-digit lead over GOP Senate nominee Herschel Walker, suggesting that even if the numbers are slightly skewed in the same degree as 2020, the Democrats would still hold onto the Senate seat. A SurveyUSA poll conducted between September 30 and October 4 shows Warnock ahead by 12 points.
However, because Nevada is one of the two swing states that Republicans are expected to take this November, a skew showing a larger victory for Democrats wouldn't be an issue for the GOP in the Silver State. A Trafalgar Group poll conducted between September 17 through 20 shows Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Mastro trailing Republican candidate Adam Laxalt by four percentage points.Polls throughout the 2020 election cycle showed a clear Biden lead and he had been heavily favored to take New Hampshire. However, his final victory was smaller than the projected double-digit victory that a University New Hampshire poll suggested Biden would win.
Although the survey showed the Democrat with a 12-point lead over Trump, Biden's margin of victory ended up bring 7.35 percent. This could spell trouble for Democrats in New Hampshire this year, since their advantage in the Senate race is slimmer than Biden's was in 2020.has a three-point lead over Republican Don Bolduc, according to a Trafalgar Group poll conducted between September 26 and 39.
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