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With less than 100 days until the 2026 midterms, Democrats are mounting an uphill battle to regain control of the Senate, targeting competitive races in states like Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, and Texas. Despite recent polls suggesting a close race, prediction markets still favor Republicans, with a 55-56 percent chance of retaining Senate control. In Alaska, a reliably Republican state since 1964, former Representative Mary Peltola's candidacy has given Democrats hope of flipping the seat. In Georgia, Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff is favored to retain his seat against Representative Mike Collins, with Trump's low approval rating and Ossoff's popularity working in the Democrat's favor.
With less than 100 days until the 2026 midterms, Democrats are mounting an uphill battle to regain control of the Senate, eyeing competitive races in states like Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, and Texas.
Historically, midterm elections serve as a referendum on the sitting president, and with President Donald Trump's approval rating declining due to economic concerns, Democrats are hopeful about their chances of expanding the Senate battleground. However, Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority and are targeting four Democratic-held seats in Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire. Democrats, meanwhile, view GOP-held seats in Maine and North Carolina as top targets.
Even if Democrats retain their current seats and flip those two, they would still be left with a 51-49 minority, necessitating wins in double-digit Trump states to secure a majority. Despite this structural hurdle, recent polls suggest a close race, with Democrats leading on the generic ballot by 8 to 11 points in some surveys. Prediction markets, however, still favor Republicans, with a 55-56 percent chance of retaining Senate control.
In Alaska, a reliably Republican state since 1964, former Representative Mary Peltola's candidacy has given Democrats hope of flipping the seat. Recent polls show a tight race between Peltola and incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan. In Georgia, Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff is favored to retain his seat against Representative Mike Collins, with Trump's low approval rating and Ossoff's popularity working in the Democrat's favor. The Cook Political Report has shifted the Georgia race to 'Lean Democrat'
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2026 Midterms Senate Democrats Republicans Alaska Georgia Mary Peltola Jon Ossoff Donald Trump
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