For the first time this election cycle, FiveThirtyEight says that Democrats have a better shot of retaining control of the Senate than Republicans have of winning, due in part due to Republicans selecting “weak candidates” in some key races .
uses polling data and other statistics to simulate the election 40,000 times in order to get a snapshot of who will win. Ultimately, Democrats won the Senate in 52 out of every 100 outcomes simulated on Wednesday, while Republicans won in 48 out of every 100 outcomes .
The model’s prediction doesn’t mean that Democrats are a sure bet to retain control of the Senate — indeed, the results of the simulation suggest a strong possibility that either party can win. Both have around the same chances that they would in a coin flip, with just slightly better odds for Democrats.earlier this summer. In early June, FiveThirtyEight’s simulation predicted that Republicans had a 60 percent chance of winning the Senate, while Democrats had just a 40 percent chance.