Economists predict a slowdown in nonfarm payroll growth in December, with estimates ranging from 125,000 to 155,000. While the labor market remains strong, experts debate the extent of a potential slowdown. The report could provide limited clarity on the future direction of hiring.
Economists expect the Bureau of Labor Statistics to report a gain of 155,000 in nonfarm payrolls in December, a step down from the surprising 227,000 increase in November.
The December jobs report is likely to provide only limited clarity on where the labor market is headed, with experts differing on how pronounced a slowdown there is in hiring. On average, the economy in 2024 added about 180,000 jobs a month through November, though the data has been volatile and somewhat confusing lately. Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Thursday that labor market reports"have become increasingly difficult to interpret" due to measurement challenges, which have included a surge of new workers and low response rates on surveys.
Similarly, Citigroup is predicting just 120,000 new jobs and a 4.4% unemployment rate, which economist Andrew Hollenhorst wrote"should remind markets that the labor market has not stabilized and is continuing to soften. Risks are balanced to an even softer reading."
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