David Rosenberg: The Russians aren't coming, they've arrived — here's what could happen next — via financialpost
At a minimum, this halts the economic recovery in Europe, and the energy shock is risking a recession — natural gas on the continent jumped 30 per cent overnight Wednesday. The economic knock-on effects are big, given the European Union commands the largest chunk of global GDP.Article content
Treasury yields will reverse this most recent backup , and most commodities will rise, which means Treasury inflation-protected securities will be in play. Oil prices have already broken above US$100 per barrel for the first time since 2014 and the backwardation is deepening; the base metals from copper to nickel to aluminum have spiked.Article contentFood prices are setting new record highs. Gold and silver should benefit as well.
In the currency market, selling the euro against virtually any currency is the most prudent move at the moment, especially against defensive units such as the yen and/or commodity currencies like the loonie, Australian dollar and New Zealand kiwi.
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