IT was one press conference I’ll never forget. After another night of Iraqi Scud missile attacks on Israel, a reporter next to me in the Tel Aviv…
IT was one press conference I’ll never forget. After another night of Iraqi Scud missile attacks on Israel, a reporter next to me in the Tel Aviv Hilton Hotel asked the Israeli Defence Force spokesman what Israel’s response might be if one of Saddam Hussein’s missiles contained, say, sarin or some other chemical or biological agent?
Iraq’s government had made no secret that it would attack Israel if invaded. Saddam’s regime hoped that not only would it provoke a military response from Israel, but in doing so many Arab states that formed part of the coalition would in turn withdraw from it, refusing to fight alongside Israel.
Now fast forward to today and ask yourself whether all this sounds familiar. Ask yourself too whether, this time around, current Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu will prove as receptive to American efforts or incentives to Israel not to strike back against Tehran as Shamir was back in 1991. As archival documents have subsequently shown, back in 1991 King Hussein of Jordan and Shamir had reached a tacit strategic understanding on Jordan’s neutrality during the war.
It’s worth remembering for example that in Jordan’s case about half the population is of Palestinian origin from the days when Palestinians were ousted from their land as the state of Israel asserted itself. In other words, the scale and nature of Israel’s response should it come – as few doubt it will – has the capacity to create instability far and wide across the region, just as Israel’s threat to strike Baghdad did back in 1991.
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